By Kushvinder Vohra
There is a lot of misinformation around the Indus Waters Treaty(IWT), which is being spread through various articles appearing in newspapers/magazines/online forums, including in Pakistan. Articles by so-called elites or scholars are nothing but general rhetoric to create public perception in Pakistan, devoid of facts. Although India has kept the Treaty in abeyance, it’s important to look into the real issues about the so-called water scarcity widely reported in Pakistan.
They keep on blaming India for their water woes as if India is to provide whatever water they think is required. As per Article III of IWT, India was under an obligation to let flow the waters of western rivers except for the use permitted to it. So, flows received by Pakistan at any given time are dependent upon various factors such as rain in the catchment, snow melt, etc, and stipulated uses to India.
As per various research Institutes, Pakistan, on average, receives about 140 Million Acre Feet (MAF) of water annually in the Indus basin from western rivers, which is still more than 135 MAF, estimated at the time of the Treaty. However, in Eastern rivers, flows are reported to have been reduced by about 15% from 33 MAF, which was assessed at that time. So why all that rhetoric against India?
If we dive deep into the issue, the truth is not far off. Out of about 140 MAF, Pakistan’s diversion for irrigation use is only about 104 MAF; the rest is either wasted in the system or goes to sea. The real issue about so-called water scarcity in Pakistan is mismanagement of the water received and a host of other factors, which are barely being discussed by experts in Pakistan.
Hardly any public discussion takes place about the inaction and failure of stakeholders in Pakistan (including the Government of Pakistan) in managing the precious water resources, especially when the ground realities have changed immensely since the signing of the Treaty in 1960.
Could this be a deliberate agenda to always blame India and play the victim card to divert attention from the real issue, that is, the mismanagement of water resources in Pakistan? Let’s look at the various facts.
Water use in Pakistan
During the 1950s, Pakistan was using around 66 MAF of water, irrigating around 21 million acres (MAc) of land in the Indus Basin. The water use in the Indus Basin has since gone up to 104 MAF to irrigate about 34 MAc. It may be noted that the water used per unit of area irrigated is almost the same as in 1960. However, the ground realities have changed. The population has been increasing, which reduces the per capita availability of water.
However, the same is true for India as well. Thus, water management practices followed at the time of the Treaty are totally outdated now, and require an understanding of the complex linkages between water, food, and energy nexus. India has already taken a huge leap in this regard, whereas Pakistan has not initiated this earnestly. In spite of getting 33 MAF water (20% of the total water), India is irrigating about 26 MAc of area in the eastern part of the Indus basin. This shows that water productivity in Pakistan is very poor.
Poor water governance in Pakistan
World Bank (WB) Group study report titled “Pakistan - Getting more from water” (Study Report mentions the information is updated up to Sept 2018), took a long-term view of the water security of Pakistan, up to 2047. The outcome of the study says that Pakistan is well endowed with water (including the Indus Basin), and only 16 other countries have more water. But being the sixth most populous country, water availability per person is low. Here, it is worth mentioning that the per capita reduction in water in Pakistan is mainly due to population increase, and quantitatively, on average, it is getting the same or even more water in the Indus basin as was estimated at the time of signing of IWT.
Further, as per the study report, water security may be challenging, but it does not define a country’s economic destiny. Interestingly, there are 32 countries with less water per person than Pakistan; across these countries, the average per capita GDP is 10 times that of Pakistan. Only six of these 32 countries are poorer than Pakistan – all African nations with little irrigation investment and heavy reliance on traditional rainfed agriculture.
The report also says that Pakistan does not make the best use of its water endowment, and water security is undermined by poor water resource management. Long-term water-related risks are not recognized and are poorly mitigated. It also says that water resource management in Pakistan is compromised by poor water data governance, weak planning, widespread pollution, over-exploitation of groundwater (GW), low water productivity, weak processes that prevent reliable flood and drought forecast, among others.
Thus, keeping in view that more than 90% of water in Pakistan is used for irrigation, it is imperative that the water losses be reduced and water productivity be improved by Pakistan to tackle the current challenges. It is also worth mentioning that Pakistan has not created adequate storage. Water flow will follow its cycle, and 80% of it will come in about 4 months. Therefore, without adequate storage, it can never achieve reliable Rabi irrigation. So, just pointing fingers at India for its own poor governance shall not help it in any way. It needs to sincerely work on improving water governance, as, on average, sufficient water is available to them.
Wastage of water and low water productivity
Another analysis, namely ‘Water Management in the Indus basin in Pakistan – Challenges and Opportunities’ (by Asad Sarwar Qureshi), published by International Mountain Society (Aug. 2011), also confirms that the Indus basin brings an average of 175 BCM (about 142 MAF) of water in Pakistan, which is more than estimated at the time of signing of IWT. Out of this, 128 BCM (about 104 MAF) is diverted for irrigation; 12 BCM (9.7 MAF) is wasted as system losses, and 35 BCM (28.2 MAF) flows into the sea.
Thus, despite being endowed with large water resources, Pakistan is only able to use about 73% of them, and the rest is wasted or escapes. Moreover, the productivity of 104 MAF of water diverted for irrigation is low. This paper mentions that the productivity of water in Pakistan is among the lowest in the world. For wheat, for example, it is 0.5 kg/m3 compared with 1.0 kg/m3 in India. In fact, Pakistan has made no real effort to increase crop water productivity.
In contrast, India has made huge investments in schemes such as ‘Per Drop More Crop’, ‘watershed development’, micro irrigation, command area development, etc. During the last decade itself, more than Rs. 1.25 lakh crore has been spent on these central schemes to improve crop water productivity. In addition, states have also spent a substantial amount on their own to increase crop water productivity.
Low storage capacity
Compared to other arid countries, Pakistan has a storage capacity of only 15% of the annual river flow. As per reported figures, Pakistan can barely store 30 days of water. After constructing the Tarbela dam 30 years ago, no decision was taken by Pakistan on the construction of a new storage. Without adequate storage, Pakistan can not manage to use substantial water resources in the Indus basin, which are received mostly during the four monsoon months, thus resulting in substantial water flowing to the sea.
Water conservation
Pakistan has not made any serious efforts in water conservation to deal with climate change. Therefore, it is logical that they shall feel water scarcity from time to time, despite receiving as much or more Indus water than estimated in 1960. On the other hand, India is continuously working on water conservation and has annually spent about Rs 90,000 crore during the last decade. During the last 8 years alone, 11 BCM of water has been conserved through newly built tanks, ponds, and other water recharge structures across the country.
In contrast, Pakistan has only given lip service to this vital aspect so far. As reported in Pakistan media, in a knee-jerk reaction to the decision of India to keep IWT in abeyance, Pakistan announced building a large number of small-scale reservoirs. But going by the past records and keeping in view Pakistan’s financial situation, it remains to be seen whether any such measures will be implemented on the ground.
Over-exploitation of ground water (GW) resources
It is reported that in past decades, millions of private tube-wells have been dug, and the extraction of GW is much more than the recharge. The average decline in the GW table is ~ 1.5 m/year. The problem of poor GW quality and its salinity compounds the problems. Not much effort is seen to be made in this regard in Pakistan.
In India, too, the situation of GW has been similar. However, India has been taking consistent steps in this regard, especially during the last one decade. As per the latest GW Assessment report, there is an increase in the water table in many areas, thanks to the schemes that have been launched throughout the country. Punjab has launched an initiative (‘Bijli Bachayo, Paisa Kamayo’) with an aim to curb the misuse of free electricity to extract GW.
Haryana has launched a scheme that incentivizes farmers to diversify from paddy to other crops requiring less water. Many other states have also launched similar schemes to conserve water. The community-led GW management, under an initiative of the Central Govt, promotes integrated water resources management. Combined with the National Aquifer Mapping Programme, these schemes bring in a paradigm shift in GW management in various river basins in India, including the Indus Basin.
Irrigation infrastructure
Pakistan has focused only on creating canal infrastructure. As mentioned above, a lot of water is being wasted in the system. There is no concrete effort to modernize the infrastructure to improve its efficiency. Only a few studies have been carried out, and some pilots have been done through ADB, and others, which could not be expanded to larger areas. Obviously, this situation has led to a huge quantity of water being wasted in the system itself.
On the other hand, India has been making tremendous efforts to improve the irrigation throughout the country by focusing on the improvement of the irrigation system, by modernizing it with the use of SCADA, the use of pipes in distributary systems, micro irrigation, focus on water management through user associations, etc.
While Pakistan is frozen in time, India is clearly making efforts and achieving results in better management of water resources despite facing similar challenges as Pakistan, such as population rise, climate change, etc.
Inter-provincial disputes in Pakistan
In 1991, the Water Apportionment Accord was signed by Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan to resolve long-standing water distribution conflicts. However, each province has interpreted it in its own way, and each is blaming the other for the misappropriation of water.
The absence of coordination among them and mistrust has ceased any effort to improve water resource management, and the issue has been reduced to just receiving flows. This has stalled crucial projects such as the Kalabagh Dam, which could significantly increase the storage capacity in Pakistan.
Conclusion
Pakistan, on average, is receiving equal or more water (142 MAF) in the Indus basin as estimated at the time of signing of IWT. Pakistan is not able to manage it properly. The wastage in the system is about 12 BCM (9.7 MAF), and another 35 BCM (28.3 MAF) flows to sea. Only about 104 MAF is diverted for irrigation. The water use efficiency of the diverted 104 MAF water is quite low. Crop water productivity is one of the lowest in the world.
The real issue is not related to the inflow of the Indus river system in Pakistan, but its poor management by Pakistan. The 36 MAF of water, which at present is being wasted or escaping to sea, is sufficient for enhancing the water security of Pakistan.
India has similar concerns related to population growth and climate change. However, it is taking long-term action to tackle the same by focusing on the modernization of the irrigation system, GW recharge, rainwater harvesting, water conservation, crop water productivity, recycling of wastewater, reducing river pollution, etc, to achieve water security despite challenges. Pakistan does not seem to have taken any concrete action on the ground to tackle these issues.
Pakistan needs to come out of the mindset during the time of negotiation of IWT, when it alleged that India interferes with their waters in the Indus basin. Since then, it has been branding India as an upper riparian that can turn off its tap and has been objecting to each and every hydroelectric project in India, although permitted under IWT. Pakistan's negligence in water management, in fact, is responsible for its water woes in the Indus basin.
No amount of water flow can help Pakistan unless it works on Integrated Water Resource Management by improving its systems, crop water productivity, GW management, storage, agricultural practices, institutional reforms, monitoring systems, use of modern technology, etc., and resolving inter-provincial disputes.
Public discourse regarding the above issues shall help Pakistan work towards the sustainable use of water. Hiding the real issues and focusing on imaginary issues by blaming India is not going to be helpful.
Pakistan has a number of studies through the W B Group and IWMI (International Water Management Institute), and it's time to look into the findings of these studies rather than maintaining the same old rhetoric, which is nothing more than imagination to divert from the real issues plaguing the water sector in Pakistan.
(Kushvinder Vohra is the former Chairman of the Central Water Commission & ex officio Secretary to the Government of India, and former Indian Commissioner Indus)
The views expressed are not necessarily those of The South Asian Times
