BUSINESS

The $100 billion bet

Monday, 15 Jun, 2026

By Avichal Sharma

Did the India-EFTA trade pact actually redefine the role of FDI in shaping national innovation?

The start of the India-EFTA Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA), along with India’s ₹1 lakh crore ($10.83 billion) domestic R&D innovation fund, marks a major shift in global trade.

Instead of just cutting taxes on imports (tariffs), India made a new rule: European countries like Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein must invest $100 billion in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) over 15 years to get access to India's market.

Looking back, this was a clear plan to fix old trade imbalances by making trade deals directly fund India's industries and technology.

From an economic view, running these two programs at the same time created a perfect balance of supply and demand for deep-tech innovation. The domestic R&D fund made early research safer for Indian companies by giving them long-term, interest-free loans.

At the same time, the EFTA deal brought in the global capital and technical skills needed to scale up these ideas. This setup helped Indian businesses move past simple, low-profit assembly lines and start creating valuable intellectual property.

It also gave EFTA nations a safe, fast-growing place to invest as global supply chains shifted. The way this money is being spent shows a clear focus on advanced, high-tech industries.

Money is flowing into smart sectors like precision engineering, medical technology, clean energy, and artificial intelligence infrastructure. By setting up Mutual Recognition Agreements that allow professional qualifications to be accepted across borders, the deal may successfully create one million high-quality jobs. This has connected India’s skilled workers directly with
European supply chains.

In the long run, the success of this "investment for market access" model depends on strict monitoring and enforcement. The treaty includes a unique safety rule: India can change its tariff cuts if EFTA fails to meet its investment targets over the fifteen-year timeline.

While this creates extra paperwork and requires careful tracking, it offers a new blueprint for how growing economies can open up to global trade while protecting their own domestic industries and jobs.

Dr Avichal Sharma is an Assistant Professor of Economics at CHRIST (Deemed to be University) at Pune, India