Prioritizing people-centered diplomacy, leveraging the Indian diaspora, aligning with Indo-Pacific interests, and addressing Sikh separatism sensitivities are vital to bolster bilateral relations.
By Vipul Tamhane
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party suffered a surprising loss in the Toronto by-election, losing a traditionally secure seat in St Paul’s that they held for three decades. The Conservatives won the seat, raising doubts about Trudeau's leadership. Toronto, often considered a Liberal stronghold, rarely sees Conservative victories. This loss signals a wake-up call for the Prime Minister.
Trudeau, leading Canada since 2015, is now facing a significant drop in support due to issues like the cost of living crisis, slow economic growth, unaffordable housing, rising unemployment, and increasing crime rates. His approval ratings have plummeted to a record low of 28 per cent, with 68 per cent of Canadians wanting him to step down, raising questions about his future as leader.
The Liberal Party's landslide loss is attributed to the Trudeau camp's persistent campaign against India, with the Prime Minister accusing India of political assassination, which has been a significant factor in the party's rise amongst the Khalistani separatists. Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau has also accused India of election meddling. This politically driven investigation seems to associate India with countries like China, Iran, and North Korea, known for their foreign interference history, despite India lacking state-sponsored hacking or lobbying.
Trudeau Government leaders have launched anti-India referendums that have strained Canada-India relations, highlighting differences in foreign election approaches and unpredictable candidates. Canada accuses India of influencing its national and domestic affairs, with some elected officials involved in foreign operations, which India denies, claiming they are politically-motivated by Sikh separatist campaigners. Canada's spy agency suggested India was involved in attempts to influence Canadian elections in 2019 and 2021, facing India’s rejections.
A Trudeau government report also quotes his statements accusing India of having credible evidence of Indian agents' involvement in the killing of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar. The report carries an attack on New Delhi claiming to be the second biggest foreign interference threat to its democracy, with China named the first.
This report, which mentions India 44 times in an 84-page report, has been met with criticism from India, as Canada has provided no proof to support any of these claims. This shoddy display of diplomacy is not seen in a positive light by conservative Canadians and is also seen as a reason for negative polls for Trudeau. Looking historically at Indo-Canadian relations, an incident highlights Canadian friction back in 1914, when the Japanese ship Komagata Maru, carrying 376 passengers from Punjab province, was denied entry to Canada due to exclusion laws targeting Asian immigrants, highlighting strained race relations. Canada and India historically had limited engagement pre-1947, marked by Canada's mostly stance of abstinence in the UN during India’s conflicts with Pakistan and China.
Post-Independence, diplomatic relations expanded, leading to high commissions in both nations. Canada's Cold War alignment with the West influenced its stance, as India and Pakistan had differing alliances. Canada again maintained neutrality during the 1962 Sino-Indian War. Relations strengthened in the 1970s with a Canadian Prime Minister's visit to India. However, the 1985 Air India Flight 182 bombing, involving Canadian Sikh terrorists, caused a setback, claiming 329 lives, and becoming a landmark act of aviation terrorism until 2001.
Canada and India have deepened their ties through shared democratic values and robust people-to-people connections. Canada serves as a significant source of foreign direct investment for India, with both nations collaborating on global issues and prioritizing stability in the Indo-Pacific. Bilateral trade has grown substantially, with India emerging as a key immigration source for Canada. Strong collaboration was continuously observed in fields including agriculture, research and technology, and the environment.
By 2022, India ranked as Canada's 9th-largest merchandise trading partner in the Indo-Pacific and 13th globally. Bilateral trade volumes reached $8.27 billion in FY23 and $5.3 billion from April to November 2023. Ongoing negotiations for the India-Canada Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement and the Early Progress Trade Agreement are poised to further bolster trade and yield economic benefits for Canada by 2035.
Canadian politics wield significant influence over India's trade and economy, impacting bilateral relations through trade policies, tariffs, and regulatory frameworks. With a sizable Indian diaspora exceeding one million, Canada's political landscape shapes policies affecting this community, fostering cultural exchanges and economic ties. As democracies, both nations' political orientations influence global issues like security, climate change, and terrorism, occasionally sparking diplomatic tensions, especially concerning Canada's Sikh population.
To strengthen ties, Canada should expand engagement beyond trade to encompass education, technology, and cultural exchange. Facilitating academic collaborations, joint research, and cultural events can deepen mutual understanding. Unrestricted non-governmental dialogues and civil society interactions can bridge diplomatic gaps. Prioritizing people-centered diplomacy, leveraging the Indian diaspora, aligning with Indo-Pacific interests, and addressing Sikh separatism sensitivities are vital.
Investing in high-level diplomatic exchanges and emphasizing shared values like democracy and the rule of law can foster positive relations. Canadians should consider these geopolitical dynamics when electing officials who represent their interests on the global stage.
(The writer is a counter-terrorism expert and a visiting faculty with Pune University (SPPU) at the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies (DDSS). He is also the founder & editor-in-chief at Diplomacy Direct, a public interest think-tank.)
