The coalition government faces a confidence vote next week.
Toronto: The suspense over the fate of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau intensified after his ruling Liberal Party suffered a second humiliating loss in a special election. The Liberals, who have governed for almost nine years, suffered a narrow defeat in a Montreal constituency this week that had been one of the party's safest seats, Reuters reported.
The loss, following a defeat in Toronto in late June, reinforced the perception that Liberal prospects in the next national election are dim. The mandate for Trudeau's minority government expires at the end of October 2025, but an early election has become increasingly likely after Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party (NDP) dropped its support. Polls suggest that the Liberals will lose badly to the right-of-center Conservatives of Pierre Poilievre in the next federal election.
Even so, Trudeau showed no sign that he may step down before the next election campaign. And the party's mechanisms to force him out are limited. According to reports, his main immediate challenge is that he has lost control of the House of Commons, where the Liberals hold only a minority of seats. The left-leaning NDP signed a deal in 2022 to keep the Liberals in power but tore up the agreement this month.
Trudeau is likely to face a confidence vote next week as the official opposition Conservatives, who have a commanding lead in the elections ahead of the 2025 general election, said they would try to topple Trudeau on September 25 on the grounds that Canadians cannot afford the promised increase in an existing federal carbon tax. Trudeau will need support from other legislators to survive the confidence vote in the House of Commons.
The Liberals face several confidence votes by legislators in the next few months and a defeat would trigger an election, although the NDP may choose to keep the government afloat until it can buoy its own popularity. Keeping a minority government alive can be difficult and how much Trudeau can press ahead with his legislative agenda remains unclear.
However, unlike in the US, where President Joe Biden stepped down as Democratic presidential candidate in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris, there is no smooth way for Trudeau to hand over power. Trudeau was selected by a special convention of party members and cannot be forced out if he wants to stay.
