India would likely engage in high-level diplomatic talks, seeking to persuade the US government to adopt a more measured and phased approach to deportations.
By K S Tomar
Donald Trump's presidency has reignited a deeply polarized debate on illegal immigration, making it one of the central issues of his administration. His administration’s aggressive stance on deporting millions of undocumented immigrants, including a significant number of Indian nationals, has drawn attention and concern globally. With around 11.5 million undocumented immigrants residing in the United States, this policy shift promises to reverberate across economic, social, and diplomatic arenas. Among these undocumented populations, Indian nationals — numbering approximately 500,000 — represent a notable group, most of whom entered the US legally but overstayed their visas, setting them apart from other immigrant groups, particularly those from Latin America.
Complex nature of undocumented immigration
The issue at hand is multifaceted and far from simple. The undocumented immigrant population in the US consists of individuals from Mexico, Central America, India, China, and the Philippines. While immigrants from Latin America are often associated with illegal border crossings, the majority of undocumented Indians overstay their visas rather than enter the US unlawfully. This distinction complicates the broader immigration debate and makes it clear that Indian nationals are not part of the same narrative as migrants crossing the US-Mexico border.
The Trump administration's approach to this issue is comprehensive and aggressive, consisting of several key elements:
Mass deportations - Plans include targeting millions of undocumented immigrants, regardless of how they arrived in the country, including those who overstayed their visas.
Asylum restrictions - Stricter measures are being implemented to deny asylum seekers, particularly those crossing the US-Mexico border.
Visa program reforms - Among the most controversial aspects of this policy are the proposed changes to the H-1B visa program, which predominantly impacts Indian nationals. These reforms are designed to limit the number of skilled immigrants entering the US, targeting sectors such as technology and engineering, where Indians make up a large portion of the workforce.
Economic impact on India
The economic consequences of such policies would have a direct and immediate effect on India. In 2022 alone, Indian immigrants in the US contributed a staggering $12 billion in remittances, a crucial source of income for families back home. This amount forms a significant portion of India’s overall remittance inflow of $89 billion for that year. The deportation of a significant portion of this population would not only impact families reliant on these funds but also place immense pressure on local economies, particularly in rural areas that depend on remittances for daily sustenance and development.
Beyond remittances, many undocumented Indians are highly skilled professionals or students who find themselves trapped in legal limbo, unable to obtain permanent residency despite their qualifications. The potential mass deportation of such individuals would have far-reaching consequences for industries in India.
The sudden return of a large number of skilled workers to India, without adequate opportunities for reintegration into the labor market, could exacerbate unemployment and underemployment which has already peaked and witnessed during the past 45 years. This could also contribute to a growing pool of underutilized talent, further hindering India’s economic growth and technological progress.
Social and humanitarian challenges
Beyond the immediate economic impacts, the social ramifications of mass deportations would be profound. Many families would face devastating separations, with children — often US-born citizens — left behind in complex legal situations. For these children, who have grown up in the US, the disruption to their lives and futures could be devastating. Moreover, the deportees would face significant challenges in reintegrating into Indian society. Many would find it difficult to adapt to a system that is vastly different from the one they left behind, particularly those who have lived in the US for years.
Diplomatic strain and US-India relations
Mass deportation of Indian nationals could strain the bilateral relationship, particularly if the former is forced to act to protect its citizens and the interests of its diaspora. India would likely engage in high-level diplomatic talks, seeking to persuade the US government to adopt a more measured and phased approach to deportations.
Experts say that India could push for reforms that would enable undocumented Indians to regularize their immigration status, rather than being subjected to mass deportation. Additionally, advocating for more relaxed visa norms for skilled workers, particularly those in high-demand sectors like technology and healthcare, would be a strategic move to protect its economic interests and ensure that the US remains an attractive destination for skilled Indian labor. At the same time, the policy could erode the perception of the US as a welcoming destination for global talent, particularly for Indian students and professionals. If the US becomes less inviting, skilled Indian workers may seek opportunities elsewhere, redirecting global talent flows toward countries like Canada, the UK, or Australia. This could have long-term consequences on the US’s ability to attract high-quality human capital, potentially weakening its global competitive position.
Challenges in policy implementation
Although the Trump administration’s immigration policies are bold in their objectives, their implementation faces numerous challenges. One of the most significant hurdles is the backlog of deportation cases in US immigration courts, which already face a caseload of over 1.8 million cases. This inefficiency could delay the deportation process, preventing swift action and potentially leading to legal complications.
Moreover, the financial cost of mass deportations is substantial. Each deportation is estimated to cost the US. government around $10,854 per individual. Given that millions of undocumented immigrants could be targeted, the total financial burden of deportations could run into the billions of dollars, placing a significant strain on US taxpayers.
Economic consequences for America
The US economy is heavily reliant on immigrant labor, particularly in sectors such as agriculture, construction, and hospitality. Undocumented workers fill essential roles in these industries, and their removal could result in labor shortages, disrupting productivity and straining supply chains. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the US economy could lose up to $1.6 trillion in GDP over the next two decades if mass deportations are carried out.
India’s response and preparedness
India must prepare for the challenges posed by the sudden return of a large number of deportees. The Indian government needs to focus on reintegration programs that will help returning migrants find suitable employment opportunities in a strained labor market. Without these programs, deported individuals may face economic marginalization, creating long-term social issues. External affairs ministry has, however, shown preparedness to receive the deportees and do the needful to help them.
Additionally, India’s states with high migration rates, such as Punjab, Gujarat, and Kerala, will be particularly impacted by the reduction in remittance flows. These states will need to adapt their economic strategies to address the gaps created by the loss of remittances, investing in domestic job creation and skill development initiatives to absorb the returning workforce.
Navigating the complexity
For the US, balancing security with the economic reality of immigrant labor will be crucial to maintaining productivity and competitiveness. For India, managing the consequences of mass deportations while safeguarding the welfare of its diaspora requires a proactive and multifaceted approach. By strengthening bilateral relations with the US, supporting legal pathways for skilled workers, and focusing on domestic economic policies, India can mitigate the long-term impact of these policies and continue to thrive in a complex global landscape.
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(The writer is a strategic affairs columnist and senior political analyst)
