By Vipul Tamhane
The ultimate impact of these cuts will depend on how effectively the US adapts to new security dynamics while maintaining its role as a global counter terrorism partner.
President Donald Trump announced Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) with a timeline until July 4, 2026, with an overall mandate of dismantling bureaucracy, slashing regulations & spending and restructuring federal agencies, working in partnership with the White House Office of Management & Budget, yet operating outside of the government.
To optimize federal spending, DOGE, led by Elon Musk, has announced significant defense budget cuts, reflecting his cost-cutting strategies seen at his companies like Twitter. DOGE is tasked with cutting 8 per cent from the Defense Department's $850 billion budget. While this aligns with broader fiscal policies, it raises concerns about the impact on US global counter-terrorism efforts and international security cooperation.
Understanding DOGE’s defense cuts
The Department of Government Efficiency was established to identify cost-cutting measures, reduce bureaucratic redundancies, and enhance fiscal responsibility across government agencies. As part of this initiative, the defense budget has undergone significant reviews, resulting in cuts that affect counter terrorism funding, intelligence operations, military deployments, and cooperative agreements with international partners.
While specific details of the cuts remain classified, preliminary reports indicate reductions in overseas military presence, training programs for allied forces, intelligence-sharing initiatives, and financial aid for counter terrorism efforts abroad. These reductions seem focused on eliminating inefficiencies and prioritizing domestic security concerns, raising concerns about their broader implications for global counter terrorism efforts.
Pundits argue that cutting defense spending is crucial for effective budget management, given the current discretionary spending of $1.7 trillion, with $900 billion allocated to non-defense. To achieve the promised $500 billion in annual cuts, defense spending must be targeted, as reducing non-defense areas is politically challenging. Consequently, halting spending on the Ukraine war is viewed as a strategic move to facilitate these budget cuts, potentially explaining Trump’s recent trip to Saudi Arabia for mediation with Putin.
Impact on military operations and overseas deployments
Recent budget cuts could significantly reduce US military operations abroad, where the US has played a vital role in counter-terrorism through military bases, special operations forces, drone campaigns, and training missions. One immediate consequence may be a decrease in the presence of Special Operations Forces, which are crucial for counter-terrorism missions in Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. Funding cuts could lead to the withdrawal of these forces from the key conflict zones, leaving allied forces to face extremist threats with diminished support.
Moreover, the US has heavily relied on drone strikes to eliminate high-value terrorist leaders. Reduced funding may necessitate scaling back drone operations, impacting the maintenance of drone bases and intelligence efforts, potentially allowing terrorist organizations more freedom to operate. US forces stationed overseas provide rapid response capabilities, and budget cuts could limit these, delaying responses to terrorist attacks and weakening deterrence efforts.
Implications for intelligence sharing and surveillance
Intelligence-sharing is crucial for global counter-terrorism cooperation, with the US playing a key role in collecting, analyzing, and disseminating vital intelligence. However, recent budget cuts even at the Pentagon, pose significant risks to this grand defense framework. Countries relying on US intelligence resources, such as satellite imagery and cyber surveillance, may face reduced access to critical information, leading to diminished intelligence-sharing capabilities.
Considering, the rise of cyber-terrorism and the use of encrypted communication by extremist groups require ongoing technological advancements in surveillance, budget cuts could weaken cybersecurity and counterintelligence measures, hindering innovation and slowing the adoption of new counter-terrorism technologies.
Recent foreign relations actions have also destabilized allied partnerships, potentially causing friction with intelligence agencies in countries like Canada, Mexico, and France. If US intelligence-sharing agreements with key allies like the UK, France, and Israel weaken, it may result in reduced coordination and operational effectiveness against terrorist networks, ultimately impacting global counter-terrorism efforts.
Hotspots of concern
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has long been central to the US counterterrorism efforts, with significant operations targeting groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda. A reduction in US military engagement could have profound consequences, as extremist organizations may sense a power vacuum, regroup, and expand their operations, threatening regional stability. Analysis concludes that a diminished US presence could weaken its influence in strategic areas, potentially allowing rival powers like Russia and China to increase their involvement, which could strain relationships with Gulf allies reliant on the US security guarantees.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, US forces, particularly through AFRICOM, have been vital in combating groups like Boko Haram, Al-Shabaab, and ISIS affiliates. Budget cuts leading to troop withdrawals or reduced drone surveillance could result in increased instability and unchecked terrorist expansion, undermining years of progress.
In South and Central Asia, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan has already changed the counter terrorism landscape. Further cuts could limit support for operations in Pakistan and Central Asia, hindering efforts to prevent the resurgence of Taliban-aligned factions. Overall, reduced US engagement poses significant challenges for global counterterrorism efforts.
Effect on multilateral counter-terrorism cooperation
The United States plays a crucial role in global counter-terrorism through coalitions like NATO, the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, and the Five Eyes alliance. However, potential funding cuts could disrupt these essential initiatives. Reduced US military training and assistance may leave allied forces ill-equipped to address regional threats effectively. A possible withdrawal from NATO could weaken commitments to allies, leading to diminished missions and strained relationships. Cuts in foreign military aid might also hinder counter-terrorism efforts in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, where extremist threats persist, ultimately jeopardizing global security and stability.
Since the conception, the US is actively involved in international counter-terrorism initiatives through the United Nations, supporting the UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy and the UN Security Council Counter-Terrorism Committee. As a founding member of the Global Counter terrorism Forum (GCTF), the US collaborates on strategies to combat terrorism and violent extremism. It also partners with the Financial Action Task Force to address terrorist financing and works with INTERPOL to enhance global law enforcement cooperation. Leading the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, the US focuses on military, economic, and diplomatic efforts, making funding reductions particularly impactful.
Potential strategic shifts and adaptations
In light of the emerging challenges in global counter terrorism, the United States may need to reassess its approach. One potential shift could involve an increased reliance on allied forces, encouraging them to take on greater counter terrorism responsibilities as US direct engagement becomes more limited.
Also, the use of private military contractors may rise, filling the gaps left by reductions in US forces. This strategy could help maintain operational effectiveness while managing budget constraints.
And, Focusing on domestic counterterrorism, the US may prioritize preventing homegrown threats and enhancing border security. This shift could divert attention and resources from international commitments, negatively impacting US engagement in multilateral dialogues, including the ASEAN Regional Forum and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).
The expanded use of cyber operations could become a primary method for countering terrorist threats remotely, leveraging cyber warfare and AI-driven intelligence to stay ahead of evolving dangers. These shifts reflect a strategic pivot in the US counterterrorism landscape.
A delicate balance
The DOGE's defense budget cuts may lead to a more isolationist stance, emphasizing fiscal restraint and efficiency while posing significant challenges for global counter terrorism efforts. This shift could diminish the US's influence and effectiveness in international initiatives. Although the US continues to be a leader in counter terrorism, reduced funding may necessitate strategic realignments, increased reliance on allies, and a greater focus on non-traditional methods for combating terrorism.
The ultimate impact of these cuts will depend on how effectively the US adapts to new security dynamics while maintaining its role as a global counter terrorism partner. As these changes unfold, the international community will closely watch how the balance between efficiency and security is managed in an increasingly complex and volatile world.
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(The writer is a counter-terrorism expert and a visiting faculty with Pune University (SPPU) at the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies. He is also the founder & editor-in-chief at Diplomacy Direct, a public interest think-tank. Contact: [email protected])
The views expressed are personal and not necessarily those of The South Asian Times
