By K S Tomar
India's strategy must be holistic, anticipating every Pakistani move and preparing robust countermeasures.
The barbaric terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu & Kashmir, targeting innocent pilgrims, has shocked the conscience of the nation. The mood in India is unmistakable — anger mixed with the determination that this outrage cannot go unanswered. From Delhi’s corridors of power to the remotest villages, there is an overwhelming demand: Pakistan must pay a price. The government is now poised at a critical and emotive situation, evaluating a range of strategic options — military, diplomatic, economic, and covert — each carrying the potential to redefine India's national security posture. Retaliation must be smart, sustained, and sufficiently punishing to impose a long-term cost on Pakistan’s terror apparatus.
The most immediate and emotive response is a military strike. However, unlike in 2016 and 2019, Pakistan is on alert, its defenses fortified. Any reckless action could escalate into an uncontrollable conflict. Thus, India must pursue calibrated military retaliation. Surgical airstrikes or drone-led operations targeting terror camps across the Line of Control (LoC) and in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK) offer an effective option.
Utilizing long-range precision weaponry — stand-off missiles, drones, cyber-attacks — can neutralize terrorist infrastructure without escalating into a full-fledged war. However, precision is paramount. Avoiding civilian casualties would deny Islamabad the opportunity to play the victim card globally. Moreover, striking symbolic targets — leadership hubs, key training centers — can have a devastating psychological impact on terror groups. The military response must be swift yet strategic — an iron fist in a velvet glove.
Parallel to military action, India must intensify Pakistan's diplomatic isolation. In a world increasingly fatigued with terror, there is a window of opportunity. New Delhi should flood international forums — UN, G20, BRICS, FATF — with undeniable evidence of Pakistan’s complicity. Already grey-listed by FATF (Financial Action Task Force), Pakistan’s economy teeters on the brink. Pushing for its blacklisting could inflict catastrophic damage.
Further, India must work with like-minded nations — France, the United States, Australia, and Gulf allies — to build a global coalition against Pakistan’s state-sponsored terrorism. Regional players like Bangladesh and Afghanistan must also be mobilized to corner Pakistan diplomatically within South Asia. India’s approach must be relentless: every global platform, every bilateral meeting, every multilateral summit must carry the message — Pakistan is a rogue state that deserves pariah status.
Beyond bullets and diplomacy, the economic front offers potent tools. Post-Pulwama, India withdrew Pakistan’s Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status. Now, it must go further. India must impose a blanket ban on all trade routes — formal and informal, intensify surveillance on financial transactions linked to terror funding, and disrupt narcotic smuggling networks supporting Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) operations, and choke Pakistani exports by lobbying international regulatory bodies.
Economic strangulation, though silent, is often the deadliest form of warfare. Pakistan's tottering economy — grappling with IMF strictures and inflationary pressures — cannot withstand a sustained economic onslaught.
One of India’s most powerful, yet underutilized, levers is the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) signed in 1960. Despite decades of provocation, India has scrupulously honored the treaty. Pahalgam presents an opportunity to revisit this stance without breaching international law. By accelerating projects like the Ujh Multipurpose Project, Shahpur Kandi Dam, and Ratle Hydroelectric Project, India can regulate the flow of western rivers — Chenab, Jhelum, Indus — allocated to Pakistan. Controlled water flow could starve Pakistan’s agriculture-dependent heartland, inflicting slow but devastating economic damage. Water is life. Weaponizing it subtly, legally, and strategically would deliver a blow far greater than a hundred bombs.
India must not shy away from reviving covert operations inside Pakistan. The era of plausible deniability must return. Supporting dissident movements in Balochistan, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, empowering groups seeking independence or greater autonomy, and exposing Pakistan’s atrocities against minorities — Baloch, Pashtuns, Sindhis, Shias, Ahmadiyyas — at global forums are potent tools. Internal destabilization would stretch Pakistan’s already fragile governance, forcing it to look inward rather than plotting terror externally.
Every action has a reaction. India must prepare for Pakistan’s predictable and unpredictable responses: terror retaliation by activating sleeper cells for attacks on Indian cities, increased ceasefire violations along the LoC and International Border, propaganda blitz through accusations at international forums amplified by China and certain Western lobbies, cyber-attacks on India’s critical infrastructure, and disinformation campaigns spreading fake news to incite communal violence. Therefore, India's strategy must be holistic, anticipating every Pakistani move and preparing robust countermeasures.
Precision strikes must be supplemented with evidence dissemination to sustain global sympathy. Reckless action could erode diplomatic gains. India must ensure that the world sees its actions as self-defense against terrorism, not aggression against a neighbor. Given Beijing’s deep economic stakes in Pakistan via the CPEC (China–Pakistan Economic Corridor), India must avoid direct confrontation with China. Framing actions strictly as counter-terrorism measures is essential to prevent Chinese intervention.
One-off retaliation, as seen post-Pulwama, is insufficient. India needs a long-term strategic doctrine of sustained military pressure, diplomatic assault, economic strangulation, and covert destabilization. This multi-pronged approach, maintained consistently over the years, is the only way to truly make Pakistan rethink its terror sponsorship. Post-Pahalgam, India must also be prepared for internal sabotage attempts. Strengthening intelligence networks, modernizing counter-terrorism forces, upgrading cyber defense, and enhancing societal vigilance are non-negotiable imperatives.
The Pahalgam tragedy must be the turning point that defines a new era of Indian strategic thinking. Retaliation must not just be immediate; it must be enduring and escalate costs for Pakistan over time. Military strikes will hurt. Diplomatic isolation will humiliate. Economic warfare will cripple. Water management will suffocate. Covert operations will destabilize. In combination, these measures can break the spine of Pakistan’s terror state architecture without plunging the subcontinent into full-scale war.
Analysts opine that Inaction is not an option. Overreaction is not wise. Smart, sustained, ruthless pressure — across all fronts — is the formula. This time, India must not merely retaliate. It must reshape the rules of engagement for good.
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(The writer is a strategic affairs columnist and senior political analyst.)
The views expressed are not necessarily those of The South Asian Times.
