The US and India, through their coordinated diplomatic actions, are setting the stage for a more assertive and collaborative approach to countering China's influence.
By K S Tomar
In the context of strained relations between the United States and China, the adoption of the Resolve Tibet Act by the US Congress has further intensified tensions. This Act pledges full support for the people of Tibet, a move that has not been well received by China. Recently, a bipartisan American Congressional delegation met with His Holiness, the Dalai Lama, at his residence in Dharamshala, India, thereby sparking anger from China, which views the Tibetan spiritual leader as a dangerous separatist.
The high-level, seven-member US delegation was led by Republican Representative Michael McCaul and included notable figures such as former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Democrats Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Gregory Meeks, Jim McGovern, and Ami Bera, along with Republican Nicole Malliotakis. They discussed the significance of the Resolve Tibet Act, which is expected to be approved by President Joe Biden, a strong advocate for the rights of the Tibetan people.
In a related development, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with the US delegation members, who congratulated him on his historic election to a third term. They praised the fairness, transparency, and scale of the recently concluded general election in India. Interestingly, Modi posted on Twitter, "Had a very good exchange of views with friends from the US Congress in a delegation," adding that he "deeply" valued the "strong bipartisan support in advancing the India-US comprehensive global strategic partnership."
Modi’s post did not mention the discussion regarding the US delegation’s meeting with the Dalai Lama, though it was an inevitable topic, strategically kept under wraps. This meeting further amplified the diplomatic reverberations. India, hosting the Tibetan government-in-exile, has a unique and complex relationship with Tibet, often balancing its support for the Tibetan cause with its broader strategic and economic relations with China. The timing of this meeting, following closely on the heels of the Dharamshala visit, suggests a coordinated diplomatic effort to underscore shared values and mutual interests in countering China’s assertive policies.
China warns US against sending 'wrong signal'
As per expectations, the Chinese Embassy in India issued a stern warning to the United States, urging it not to "send the wrong signal" regarding Tibet. In a statement on X, the embassy said, "We urge the US side to fully recognize the anti-China separatist nature of the Dalai group, honor the commitments the US has made to China on issues related to Xizang, and stop sending the wrong signal to the world." China uses "Xizang" to refer to Tibet, which was forcibly annexed in October 1950. The Dalai Lama continues his struggle for the rights of the Tibetan people from his exile in Dharamshala.
China's response to these meetings is expected to be multifaceted. Diplomatically, Beijing is likely to lodge formal protests with both Washington and New Delhi, emphasizing its stance that Tibet is an internal matter and condemning any perceived interference in its domestic affairs. The broader strategic implications may prompt China to recalibrate its regional diplomacy.
Experts note that India and the United States share identical views and an unequivocal stance on Tibet, which has unsettled China. Historically, China breached trust in 1962, and similar confrontations occurred in 2020 in Ladakh. PM Modi made significant efforts to normalize ties with Beijing, which were not reciprocated, leading to ongoing tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Several rounds of talks have yet to yield the desired results.
Strategic ramifications: A shifting balance of power
The convergence of American and Indian interests, as evidenced by these meetings, reflects the evolving geopolitical landscape in Asia. Both countries share common concerns about China's rising influence and assertive behavior, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. By reinforcing their strategic partnership, the United States and India are signaling a commitment to a rules-based international order, countering China's ambitions.
In response, China may intensify its efforts to strengthen alliances and expand its influence in the region. This could involve further deepening ties with Pakistan, increasing engagement with other South Asian nations, and accelerating Belt-and-Road-Initiative projects to secure strategic footholds. Additionally, China might enhance its military posture along the disputed borders with India, particularly in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh, to assert its territorial claims.
Human rights and soft power: The battle for global influence
Beyond immediate strategic calculations, the meetings highlight the broader ideological contest between democratic values and authoritarian governance. The Dalai Lama, as a symbol of non-violent resistance and spiritual leadership, embodies values that resonate with global advocates of democracy and human rights. By engaging with him, the United States and India are reinforcing their commitment to these principles.
China, on the other hand, faces the challenge of defending its human rights record on the international stage. Growing global scrutiny over its actions in Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong places Beijing in a defensive position. In the battle for global influence, soft power, and moral authority are becoming increasingly important. The meetings in Dharamshala and Delhi serve to enhance the soft power of the United States and India, positioning them as champions of human rights and democratic values.
The path forward: Diplomacy and deterrence
As the geopolitical chessboard in Asia becomes increasingly complex, the interplay between diplomacy and deterrence will be crucial. The United States and India, through their coordinated diplomatic actions, are setting the stage for a more assertive and collaborative approach to countering China's influence. This involves not only strengthening geopolitical strategic ties but also fostering broader coalitions with like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific region.
Analysts suggest that China will need to navigate these challenges with a mix of strategic acumen and diplomatic finesse. While it may seek to assert its dominance through military and economic means, it will also need to address growing concerns about its human rights record and regional ambitions. This could involve adopting a more nuanced approach to diplomacy, seeking to mitigate tensions while advancing its strategic interests.
(The writer is a political analyst with six years of experience in a neighboring country.)
