The 2024 American election will have lasting ramifications not only for US-India relations but also for global geopolitics, with the potential to shape the future of the international order for years to come.
By Vipul Tamhane
As the world finds itself in an era of heightened geopolitical turbulence, two nations stand at the forefront of global decision-making: The United States, the world's most powerful nation, and India, an emerging global leader in the new world order. The intricate alliance between these two democracies has gained strategic importance in recent years, serving not only their mutual interests but also acting as a stabilizing force in a volatile international landscape. In 2024, the US presidential election will have profound consequences for US-India relations, shaping future partnerships, multilateral agreements, and geopolitical alignments for both countries and the world
at large.
This election becomes particularly critical in light of current global conditions, marked by wars, trade tensions, and a fragile balance of power. The strategic decisions made by the next US president whether Kamala Harris, a symbol of continuity from the Biden administration, or Donald Trump, a proponent of the "America First" doctrine will reverberate throughout the globe, impacting key partnerships, security arrangements, and global governance.
To understand how the US-India alliance will evolve under either administration, it’s essential to identify the core geopolitical factors that bind these two countries together and shape their mutual interests: Both the US and India view China’s growing military and economic influence as a significant challenge. The Indo-Pacific strategy, aimed at counterbalancing China’s dominance, is a cornerstone of the US-India partnership.
The future of this strategy depends heavily on the US president's stance on China, influencing defense agreements, trade deals, and alliances with other regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia. With globalization increasingly fragile due to trade wars, supply chain disruptions, and economic sanctions, US-India trade relations are essential for both nations’ economic security. Agreements related to technology, manufacturing, and intellectual property will depend on the administration’s approach to tariffs, trade barriers, and market access.
As major players in the global economy, both nations must navigate the complexities of energy security, climate change, and related sustainability measures. India, with its growing population and energy needs, and the US, as a leading industrial power, will need to align on climate action, particularly within multilateral frameworks like the Paris Agreement. Defense and Security Partnerships, viz The Quad (US, India, Japan, and Australia), a security dialogue aimed at containing China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific, will be critical in shaping regional stability. The future of military cooperation, arms agreements, and intelligence sharing will depend on the direction of US foreign policy.
Throughout its history, the US has oscillated between Multilateralism vs. Unilateralism on multiple occasions and has shown inconsistent approaches to global governance policy, with consequences for international institutions like the United Nations, the World Trade Organization (WTO), and NATO and also for allies like India, Japan, and Germany to name a few. India, as a leader in the Global South, prefers a rules-based international order. How the next US administration engages in multilateral forums will determine the effectiveness of these alliances and their long-term potency.
Ramifications of 2024 election on US-India relations
The election of either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump in 2024 will take US-India relations down vastly different paths, with broader implications for global stability and geopolitics. If Kamala Harris becomes the next US president, it is expected that US-India relations will continue to grow, marked by multilateralism and diplomacy, building on the Biden administration’s approach. Harris would likely focus on reinforcing the Indo-Pacific Alliance, enhancing cooperation within the Quad (US, India, Japan, and Australia) to counter China’s territorial ambitions.
This would involve deeper ties in maritime security, joint military exercises, and intelligence sharing, ensuring regional stability. Harris’s emphasis on sustainability would also push for stronger US-India collaboration on climate change. Through technology transfers and investments, the US could support India’s transition to renewable energy, aligning both nations with global climate goals, including commitments under the Paris Agreement.
In terms of trade, Harris is expected to promote fair trade agreements while fostering deeper economic ties with India, particularly in tech and manufacturing. However, there may be challenges around labor rights and environmental standards, as stricter compliance could be sought. Human rights diplomacy could become a more prominent issue under Harris’s leadership, as her advocacy for social justice may lead to discussions with India on freedom of speech and minority rights. Despite potential tensions, both countries would likely prioritize maintaining a strong strategic partnership.
A second Trump presidency would signal a return to his "America First" policy, prioritizing national sovereignty and economic protectionism in US-India relations. Trump’s approach would likely focus on transactional ties, emphasizing bilateral deals over multilateral alliances.
In trade, Trump is expected to revive protectionist measures, potentially imposing tariffs on Indian goods and pushing for renegotiation of the US-India Bilateral Trade Agreement. While these moves may strain economic relations, India’s growing market, especially in tech and defense, could sustain cooperation despite tensions.
In security, Trump’s preference for bilateralism over multilateralism might weaken the Quad’s collective stance against China. Instead, he may seek stronger bilateral military agreements with India, aligning with India’s concerns about China’s regional influence but potentially undermining broader Indo-Pacific cooperation. On energy, Trump’s focus on US energy independence and skepticism of climate change agreements could hinder renewable energy collaboration with India.
However, Trump may support India’s fossil fuel needs through increased exports of US liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil, affecting global energy markets. Unlike more progressive administrations, Trump is unlikely to prioritize human rights in his dealings with India, smoothing relations by focusing on economic and security interests.
The Crystal Ball gazing into a world shaped by US-India cooperation will be tested by a range of global challenges, including climate change, economic instability, and geopolitical competition with China. Regardless of who occupies the White House, both nations will need to navigate their respective domestic and international pressures to maintain a partnership that promotes global security and economic growth.
Under Kamala Harris, the world could see the US and India emerge as champions of multilateralism, climate action, and regional stability. However, tensions could arise over trade and human rights, testing the resilience of the partnership. Conversely, under Donald Trump, the relationship may become very transactional, focusing on economic interests, but risking instability in global alliances and climate cooperation.
In either scenario, the 2024 US election will have lasting ramifications not only for US-India relations but also for global geopolitics, with the potential to shape the future of the international order for years to come.
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(The writer is a counter-terrorism expert and a visiting faculty with Pune University (SPPU) at the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies. He is also the founder & editor-in-chief at Diplomacy Direct, a public interest think-tank.)
