By Shubham Ghosh
Addressing the needs of a democracy while maintaining control is a delicate balancing act. A little slip could lead to a resurgence of Kashmir’s notorious separatist violence
India’s election commission announced in August that the northernmost province of the country, Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), will hold its three-phase local election starting September 18. The results will be out on October 8. This election will be the first in the federally administered Union Territory (UT) in a decade and also since the 2019 abrogation of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution which gave J&K a special status.
The election is a big test for the Narendra Modi government, particularly after the criticism it faced after abrogating the article and allegedly cracking down on the local opposition parties and leaders, human rights defenders, and free press. While the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government has tried to convince all quarters that the security and economic situation in the sensitive J&K region has improved in the last five years, for many, the claim is not in sync with reality.
Why is the J&K election taking place now? One reason is the Supreme Court’s order to the election commission last December to hold polls in Kashmir by September 30. While upholding the decision to revoke Article 370, the apex court also sought restoration of J&K’s statehood. PM Modi himself has given indications recently about restoring the statehood, including in Srinagar in June.
While it is to be seen whether New Delhi connects the upcoming election with the restoration of statehood since an election without statehood would give Modi's critics enough ammunition to target his government, the poll announcement reveals strategic ploys.
Domestically, it is a sign that Modi has softened his Kashmir stance after the results of this year’s general election. The Hindu nationalist party did not field a single candidate in the Muslim-dominated Kashmir Valley and both the seats that it won were from the Hindu-majority Jammu. Its vote share also plummeted. Nationally, the BJP could not clinch a majority and had to depend on allies to form the government. The BJP failed to sell its post-2019 political projects in Kashmir.
With election results reflecting the simmering emotions and legal challenges multiplying, the Modi government felt the pulse. Addressing the needs of a democracy while maintaining control is a delicate balancing act. A little slip could lead to a resurgence of Kashmir’s notorious separatist violence. A better plan is to call for the elections and give the people of Kashmir a safety valve. While many in the BJP are hoping it will form a government in the state, its strategic masterminds in New Delhi might not be surprised if the outcome is adverse.
Since some of J&K's local parties like the National Conference (NC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP) are seeking a revival of talks with Pakistan, it would give the Hindu nationalists an opportunity to make nationalism a part of J&K’s political debate. Going by the uneasy alliance it had with the PDP in the last elected government in Kashmir (2014-18), the BJP would be more comfortable forming its own government in Kashmir, even if that requires an extreme polarization strategy.
While Pakistan’s becoming a subject of discussion in the J&K election would be debatable, it helps Modi’s BJP. One of its national leaders has accused the opposition alliance of NC and Indian National Congress of playing into the hands of the arch-rival. Home Minister Amit Shah and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh uttered bold statements on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) in recent
months, suggesting that it eventually would merge with India. With protests in PoK against Islamabad’s alleged misrule becoming a regular affair, holding peaceful democratic practices on J&K in a way gives credence to the BJP leaders’ claim that PoK would soon be India’s.
While abrogating Article 370 gave the Pakistan-China combine an opportunity to internationalize the Kashmir issue, the decision to hold elections in J&K would nullify Pakistan’s objections. The result of the upcoming election might or might not go the BJP way but it may help the saffron forces to become a part of Kashmir’s political mainstream.
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(The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst based in Bengaluru, India)
